End of the Empire: Will Big Law Lose Relevance, Like Conde Nast?

"For decades, one company in Manhattan told the world what to buy, what to value, what to wear, what to eat, even what to think."

That had been Conde Nast Publications. And it was because that institution controlled gatekeeping, prestige and distribution. What made it irrelevant, details Michael Grynbaum in "Empire of the Elite," was primarily technology: the internet. 

The same sort of irrelevance could take over Big Law. Technology would also play a role. This time around it would be artificial intelligence. 

Except for those bet-the-ranch assignments and highly complex transactions, the gates swing open for other kinds of providers, including total AI-firms as well as doing it in-house. Also many tasks become commodities. Both Paul, Weiss  and Sullivan & Cromwell sketched out those scenarios. Recall how the automation facilitated by Legal Zoom in 2001 transformed the Law of Supply and Demand for Main Street lawyers. AI operates on a much larger scale.

Obviously, by its downward pressure on pricing power, AI can deliver a major hit to financial results. 

With less financial reserves Big Law's economic dominance withers. Less to donate to political figures. Less prestige in working for Big Law since the lifestyle won't be as showy. Less cultural influence. Regarding the latter, attention as well as credibility shifts to other types of voices. It's interesting to note that now that Jeh Johnson is no longer part of Paul, Weiss he publishes a provocative thought piece in The Hill on ICE. He's now co-chair of the Board of Trustees at Columbia University.

Of course, pile on that other factors which can accelerate the end of Big Law as an institutional empire. 

At the top of the list is the self-interested trend of star talent conducting themselves like free agents. They hop from firm to firm usually with clients following them. Their brand, not the brand of any firm, is in control. Likely a handful of firms, such as Paul, Weiss, Wachtell and Cravath, will be able to get those free agents to stay a while. The other firms would simply have to reset as non-differentiated services.

Another factor is the growing media, political and public scrutiny of large law firms. That has become standard. Not long ago an expose on Big Law such as the 2021 "The Caesars Palace Coup" was a shocker. Currently Big Law has become a target. That in itself is the story. You bet, Big Law has lost control of the narrative.

There's a difference, though, between Conde Nast and Big Law. 

The former provides a non-essential product and service. The latter does not. So, large law firms will not collapse. Most will hang on. But not many will shape law, finance, politics or culture. Going also probably is the era of the high-profile leader such as Jones Day's Stephen Brogan or Paul, Weiss' Brad Karp. With law firms no longer powerhouse brands, the leader role could be downsized from oversized roles such as kingmaker or creator of values. 

In coaching I guide clients how to monitor if they are relevant or not. It's not who you were. That doesn't count. What's determining who you are now? That might be very different than in the past.

Success is a mental game. Failure comes from being done in by the “committee” in your head.

Together, we reprogram your thinking. Then we change your story. And, unleash success.

Intuitive Coaching. Special expertise with transitions, becoming a solopreneur and aging. Psychic/tarot readings, upon request. Complimentary consultation with Jane Genova (Text 203-468-8579, janegenova374@gmail.com). Yes, test out the chemistry. Zero risk.

Don’t give up before the miracle.