WIPEOUT! S&C Seconds What PW Projects for Role of AI in Legal Sector

 "It may not happen in two years, but it could happen in 10." The "it" is AI's game-changing impact on the business and operations of practicing law. And who's projecting that is Sullivan & Cromwell's co-chair Robert Giuffra jr. 

In today's interview with Bloomberg Law Giuffra is providing a timeframe on what Paul, Weiss chair Brad Karp had already predicted in The American Lawyer last March. When Karp did that professional anonymous networks Reddit and Fishbowl buzzed. With questions, fear and denial.

Essentially what both these two leaders in the legal sector are doing is sketching out the future of practicing law, given the growing capability of AI. The scenario includes: 

Significant reduction in the number of lawyers to do routine work, both in litigation and transactional practices. Giuffra takes that further than Karp to complex tasks:

" AI will write briefs, oral argument outlines, cross-examination outlines, opening and closing statements, slides for trials — all the things lawyers spend enormous amounts of time on ... Why couldn't a computer do due diligence for an IPO or draft a merger agreement?

The work product in much of the profession will become a commodity. Anticipate a split: There will be the elite tier and commodity players. How many parents will be able to boast about the status of "My son/daughter the lawyer." An up-to-date version could be "My son/daughter the electrician or founder."  

Closing window of demand for entry-level lawyers. Yet, as we know there's a surge in current law-school enrollment. Reuters puts that at 8%. 

Meanwhile we have to wonder how much of what those law schools are teaching will become an anachronism. Giuffra notes that legal research, which lawyers of his generation had to get down cold, will no longer be necessary. 

Sure, a JD opens up multiple career paths. But not many pay enough to pay off the student loans. The average nut is $130k. 

Another issue: The majority of law students are female - 56.25%. Are women again entering a dead-end or low-mobility career path, much like many wound up in the 20th century pursuing teaching, publishing and public relations?  

In my coaching, of course, I warn about sectors in which AI probably will wipe out myriad roles. But denial frequently overrides what is beginning to play out. Why? 

I attribute that to sunk costs. 

In enrolling in law school it's about the need for the excellent grades, preparation for the LSAT and huge investment in belief of beating the odds. In the humanities it takes the form of the years plowed into the Ph.D. In public relations it's about progress on the learning curve (much of which no longer moves the needle), the battles won for awards and more. 

Takeaway: Earning a good living often requires forgetting about sunk costs, over and over again, and starting out fresh, over and over again. The new shelf life of a career may be four or five years.

Success is a mental game. Failure comes from being done in by the “committee” in your head.

Together, we reprogram your thinking. Then we change your story.

Intuitive Coaching. Special expertise with transitions, reskilling and aging. Psychic/tarot readings, upon request. Complimentary consultation with Jane Genova (Text 203-468-8579, janegenova374@gmail.com). Yes, test out the chemistry. Zero risk.

Don’t give up before the miracle.


 

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